NEWSLETTER
www.lethagencies.com
YOUR PREFERRED AGENT IN MARITIME HOTSPOTS JULY 2026Issue 021
Welcome to this month’s update from LETH! As the maritime industry navigates new challenges, we’re here to keep you informed on
the latest developments and updates.
Featured This Month:•El Niño Update•Panama Auction Update•Middle East Update•Suez Canal Best Week
On 17 June, the US and Iran signed a 60-day Memorandum of
Understanding containing a ceasefire across "all fronts," including
Lebanon and, per Ambrey's assessment, the Houthis. There have
been no incidents since signing, though the MoU remains fragile.
The US and Iran engaged in combat operations over Strait of Hormuz
transits between 26–28 June 2026, and transits remained contested
despite the MoU. The Houthi threat is assessed as reduced for the
MoU's duration, though independent Israeli offensive action in
Gaza may raise threat levels in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden
Multiple merchant vessels were approached or attacked by
suspected pirates in the Gulf of Aden during the second half of June
and early July 2026, including a bulk carrier, chemical tanker,
product tanker, LPG carrier, and oil products tanker. The pattern was
consistent with opportunistic piracy. Most incidents involved one or
two skiffs with three to five individuals, approaching to close range
before opening fire or attempting to board using ladders. One bulk
carrier was confirmed boarded, crew sheltering in the citadel until
perpetrators departed.
No successful hijacking was reported, though one boarding was
confirmed and multiple attacks involved small arms; one injury and
no fatalities were reported. Naval assets, including those supporting
EUNAVFOR, remained present, though pirate action groups operated
near the IRTC. Ambrey assesses the piracy threat remains elevated,
and recommends vessels maintain enhanced watchkeeping, follow
BMP guidance, and consider a PAST where permissible.
There have been reports of local mobilisations in Yemen. Houthi
leader Abdul Malik al-Houthi accused Saudi Arabia of blockading
Yemen, in a speech assessed as more aggressive than recent
addresses. Ansar Allah Media Authority's Nasruddin Amer stated the
"decision has been made to end the status quo." Ambrey assesses a
risk of the Yemen Civil War reigniting, noting the Houthis' history of
targeting Coalition-linked maritime assets.
EGYPT
MIDDLE EAST UPDATE
Update from our analyst at Ambrey
Average Weekly Suez Canal Transits: Q2/2026
Source: Lloyds AIS, Observed Data
Suez Canal Per WeekTotalNorthboundSouthbound
Crude
Tanker
Product
Tanker
Dry BulkContainerLPG LNGChemicals
RoRo/
Vehicle
Carrier
Gen Cargo/
MPP
Other
Weekly Average Q2 26
(Week 14-26)
274.62 16.23 138.38 78.31 4.38 73.6231.08 5.005.77 29.69 12.31 17.69 16.77
Weekly Average Q1 26
(Week 1-13)
+13.6 +2.9 +11.4+5.1 +1.2 +7.7 -2.5-1.9-1.7 +4.4+4.0 -1.3 -1.4
Week 27 of 2026 saw 307 Suez Canal transits - the highest weekly
recorded transits in 2025 and 2026, and the clearest sign yet of a
slow but steady recovery since the Red Sea crisis. This compares to
just 234 transits in the same week last year, a 31.2% year-on-year
increase. LETH also recorded its best week of transits handled
since June 2025, near the depths of the Red Sea disruption,
underlining the gradual return of confidence and volume to the
Canal.On 3 July 2026, the Suez Canal Authority welcomed the maiden
transit of the CMA CGM SAINT GERMAIN, an LNG-powered, 23,876
TEU vessel, sailing southbound from Morocco to Malaysia. The
transit highlights the gradual return of mega container vessels to
the Canal since the Red Sea Crisis.
Suez Canal & LETH mark best week since Red Sea crisis Maiden transit of mega ship 'CMA CGM Saint Germain'
Piracy activity in the Gulf of Aden MaltaPanama SpainGibraltarDenmarkEgyptSingaporeTurkey
LETH NEWSLETTER JULY 2026
If you have questions about the statistics in this article or require further information, please reach out to our team at:
[email protected]
PANAMA
Regular: Bidding stayed near the USD 15,000 min through the first
week, then surged from mid-month to peak around June 21 before
easing into month-end. Max bid in June hit USD 200,000. Daily
averages spanned USD 15,000–218,000, averaging USD 84,000 for
the month.
Super: Demand was high all June, with daily averages ranging from
USD 117,000–859,000 (month average USD 373,000). The month's
highest winning bid hit USD 3 million. Tankers, LPGs, and LNGs kept
dominating both auctions, with no signs of easing.
Neopanamax: Demand eased with Daily averages of USD
196,000–816,000 (month average USD 558,000). Max bid in June
hit USD 2.3 Million. Tankers and LPGs again dominated auctions.
Maintenance: Please note scheduled maintenance on 21 July will
reduce old lock slots from 26 to 16 for one day.
MaintenanceNEO Draft Cut - Advisory 18 & 22
Further draft cuts at the Neopanamax Locks:
The ACP's water-saving measures are tightening again as an
strong El Niño risk builds up. Having already trimmed the
Neopanamax draft to 15.09m (49.5ft) TFW from July 3, the ACP
has now scheduled two more reductions: 14.94m (49.0ft) TFW
from July 24, then 14.78m (48.5ft) TFW from August 15. As the
deepest-draft vessels using these locks, container ships will
bear the biggest impact of the restrictio. Further adjustments
remain possible depending on Gatun Lake levels. Read more
here.
Just as notable is what the ACP hasn't announced: no change to
daily transit capacity or booking slots. The canal continues
operating its standard 36 slots per day across all segments,
with the reservation system running on normal rules. Draft
remains the only lever pulled so far.
Auctions update
El Niño
Neo Locks Draft Reduction - Panamax Locks unchanged
Gatún's level currently sits at 84.8 ft, already trailing the ACP's own five-year average of 84.7-85.2 ft for this stretch of
the rainy season, with the lake's own projections showing it falling further to roughly 83.8 ft by early September rather
than rebuilding as normal. Behind this, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center puts the odds of El Niño at 83% for
October-December, split across weak (23%), moderate (27%), strong (20%), and very strong (13%) categories, versus just
16% for neutral conditions and 1% for La Niña.
Source: ACP Official Gatun Water Level Website
NEWSLETTER
www.lethagencies.com
YOUR PREFERRED AGENT IN MARITIME HOTSPOTS JULY 2026Issue 021
Welcome to this month’s update from LETH! As the maritime industry navigates new challenges, we’re here to keep you informed on
the latest developments and updates.
Featured This Month:•El Niño Update•Panama Auction Update•Middle East Update•Suez Canal Best Week
On 17 June, the US and Iran signed a 60-day Memorandum of
Understanding containing a ceasefire across "all fronts," including
Lebanon and, per Ambrey's assessment, the Houthis. There have
been no incidents since signing, though the MoU remains fragile.
The US and Iran engaged in combat operations over Strait of Hormuz
transits between 26–28 June 2026, and transits remained contested
despite the MoU. The Houthi threat is assessed as reduced for the
MoU's duration, though independent Israeli offensive action in
Gaza may raise threat levels in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden
Multiple merchant vessels were approached or attacked by
suspected pirates in the Gulf of Aden during the second half of June
and early July 2026, including a bulk carrier, chemical tanker,
product tanker, LPG carrier, and oil products tanker. The pattern was
consistent with opportunistic piracy. Most incidents involved one or
two skiffs with three to five individuals, approaching to close range
before opening fire or attempting to board using ladders. One bulk
carrier was confirmed boarded, crew sheltering in the citadel until
perpetrators departed.
No successful hijacking was reported, though one boarding was
confirmed and multiple attacks involved small arms; one injury and
no fatalities were reported. Naval assets, including those supporting
EUNAVFOR, remained present, though pirate action groups operated
near the IRTC. Ambrey assesses the piracy threat remains elevated,
and recommends vessels maintain enhanced watchkeeping, follow
BMP guidance, and consider a PAST where permissible.
There have been reports of local mobilisations in Yemen. Houthi
leader Abdul Malik al-Houthi accused Saudi Arabia of blockading
Yemen, in a speech assessed as more aggressive than recent
addresses. Ansar Allah Media Authority's Nasruddin Amer stated the
"decision has been made to end the status quo." Ambrey assesses a
risk of the Yemen Civil War reigniting, noting the Houthis' history of
targeting Coalition-linked maritime assets.
EGYPT
MIDDLE EAST UPDATE
Update from our analyst at Ambrey
Average Weekly Suez Canal Transits: Q2/2026
Source: Lloyds AIS, Observed Data
Suez Canal Per WeekTotalNorthboundSouthbound
Crude
Tanker
Product
Tanker
Dry BulkContainerLPG LNGChemicals
RoRo/
Vehicle
Carrier
Gen Cargo/
MPP
Other
Weekly Average Q2 26
(Week 14-26)
274.62 16.23 138.38 78.31 4.38 73.6231.08 5.005.77 29.69 12.31 17.69 16.77
Weekly Average Q1 26
(Week 1-13)
+13.6 +2.9 +11.4+5.1 +1.2 +7.7 -2.5-1.9-1.7 +4.4+4.0 -1.3 -1.4
Week 27 of 2026 saw 307 Suez Canal transits - the highest weekly
recorded transits in 2025 and 2026, and the clearest sign yet of a
slow but steady recovery since the Red Sea crisis. This compares to
just 234 transits in the same week last year, a 31.2% year-on-year
increase. LETH also recorded its best week of transits handled
since June 2025, near the depths of the Red Sea disruption,
underlining the gradual return of confidence and volume to the
Canal.On 3 July 2026, the Suez Canal Authority welcomed the maiden
transit of the CMA CGM SAINT GERMAIN, an LNG-powered, 23,876
TEU vessel, sailing southbound from Morocco to Malaysia. The
transit highlights the gradual return of mega container vessels to
the Canal since the Red Sea Crisis.
Suez Canal & LETH mark best week since Red Sea crisis Maiden transit of mega ship 'CMA CGM Saint Germain'
Piracy activity in the Gulf of Aden MaltaPanama SpainGibraltarDenmarkEgyptSingaporeTurkey
LETH NEWSLETTER JULY 2026
If you have questions about the statistics in this article or require further information, please reach out to our team at:
[email protected]
PANAMA
Regular: Bidding stayed near the USD 15,000 min through the first
week, then surged from mid-month to peak around June 21 before
easing into month-end. Max bid in June hit USD 200,000. Daily
averages spanned USD 15,000–218,000, averaging USD 84,000 for
the month.
Super: Demand was high all June, with daily averages ranging from
USD 117,000–859,000 (month average USD 373,000). The month's
highest winning bid hit USD 3 million. Tankers, LPGs, and LNGs kept
dominating both auctions, with no signs of easing.
Neopanamax: Demand eased with Daily averages of USD
196,000–816,000 (month average USD 558,000). Max bid in June
hit USD 2.3 Million. Tankers and LPGs again dominated auctions.
Maintenance: Please note scheduled maintenance on 21 July will
reduce old lock slots from 26 to 16 for one day.
MaintenanceNEO Draft Cut - Advisory 18 & 22
Further draft cuts at the Neopanamax Locks:
The ACP's water-saving measures are tightening again as an
strong El Niño risk builds up. Having already trimmed the
Neopanamax draft to 15.09m (49.5ft) TFW from July 3, the ACP
has now scheduled two more reductions: 14.94m (49.0ft) TFW
from July 24, then 14.78m (48.5ft) TFW from August 15. As the
deepest-draft vessels using these locks, container ships will
bear the biggest impact of the restrictio. Further adjustments
remain possible depending on Gatun Lake levels. Read more
here.
Just as notable is what the ACP hasn't announced: no change to
daily transit capacity or booking slots. The canal continues
operating its standard 36 slots per day across all segments,
with the reservation system running on normal rules. Draft
remains the only lever pulled so far.
Auctions update
El Niño
Neo Locks Draft Reduction - Panamax Locks unchanged
Gatún's level currently sits at 84.8 ft, already trailing the ACP's own five-year average of 84.7-85.2 ft for this stretch of
the rainy season, with the lake's own projections showing it falling further to roughly 83.8 ft by early September rather
than rebuilding as normal. Behind this, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center puts the odds of El Niño at 83% for
October-December, split across weak (23%), moderate (27%), strong (20%), and very strong (13%) categories, versus just
16% for neutral conditions and 1% for La Niña.
Source: ACP Official Gatun Water Level Website
